Serbia population decline: just the tip of the European iceberg

The expected population losses in Europe between now and 2100, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, will approach numbers not seen since the Bubonic Plague in the 1300’s.

6,690,887 inhabitants live in the Republic of Serbia, according to the first results of the 2022 Census of Population, Households and Apartments published today. That is 6.9 percent, or 495,975 inhabitants, fewer than the previous census in 2011, reports Tanjug.

A decrease in the number of inhabitants was recorded in all regions (about 10 percent), except in the Belgrade (capital) region, where the number of inhabitants increased by about 1.6 percent.

Tragically, what is happening in Serbia is happening all over Europe; indeed, a devastating demographic winter is fast approaching the continent. According to the report “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100” by researchers at the University of Washington (state) and published in the Lancet in October 2020, Europe’s population is about to fall off a cliff. The expected population losses in Europe between now and 2100, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, will approach numbers not seen since the Bubonic Plague in the 1300’s. During such time it is projected that Europe as a whole will lose 26% of its population (where 200 million people will disappear). But the losses are not equally divided within Europe, as Central and Eastern Europe will be especially hard hit:

Central Europe will lose 54% of its population;
Eastern Europe will lose 34% of its population; and
Western Europe will lose 14% of its population.

For some countries, the losses during this period will be catastrophic:

Bulgaria -63%
Ukraine -61%
Poland -60%
Serbia -53%
Spain -51%
Italy -50%
Greece -47%
Hungary -47%.

Even if one uses the numbers from the more optimistic demographic projections of the United Nations, the picture, while not as bleak, is still pretty shocking. Under the UN projections, Europe still loses 16% of its population (where almost 120 million people disappear). Among the hardest hit countries would be:

Serbia -52%
Bulgaria -48%
Ukraine -44%
Poland -39%
Greece -37%
Italy -34%
Hungary -29%
Spain -29%

In either scenario, Europe may turn into the “Empty Continent” by 2100. Serbia is just the tip of the iceberg.