• Latest
  • All
Demographic winter

Demographic winter

December 3, 2020
Former Louisville University professor wins $1.6 million over dismissal for criticism of transgender treatments for children

Former Louisville University professor wins $1.6 million over dismissal for criticism of transgender treatments for children

April 26, 2025
This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. Author: Alfredo Borba

Pope Francis passed away at the age of 88

April 21, 2025
Author: Tom Morris

U.K. Supreme Court defines woman based on biological sex

April 16, 2025
New Colorado bill punishes moms and dads for rejecting trans ideology

New Colorado bill punishes moms and dads for rejecting trans ideology

April 5, 2025
Female fencer Stephanie Turner faces penalties for refusal to compete against transgender opponent

Female fencer Stephanie Turner faces penalties for refusal to compete against transgender opponent

April 3, 2025
Georgia Governor to sign Riley Gaines Act of 2025, safeguarding women’s sports from transgender ideology

Georgia Governor to sign Riley Gaines Act of 2025, safeguarding women’s sports from transgender ideology

April 2, 2025
Humanity’s indispensable but unsung heroes

Humanity’s indispensable but unsung heroes

March 18, 2025
AfD politician slams leftist abortion agenda in staunchly pro-life speech

AfD politician slams leftist abortion agenda in staunchly pro-life speech

March 12, 2025
Maine locals rally against Governor Mills’ stance on transgender participation in sports

Maine locals rally against Governor Mills’ stance on transgender participation in sports

March 1, 2025
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

J.D. Vance criticizes Europe’s disregard for pro-life advocates and religious freedom at Munich Security Conference

February 20, 2025
  • About iFamNews
  • Contact

Navigation Button Subscribe

  • Subscribe
May 14, 2025
  • Login
  • Register
No Result
View All Result
  • English
    • Italiano
    • Español
    • Français
    • Deutsch
    • Polski
    • српски
    • Русский
    • Hrvatski

Navigation Button Donate

  • Donate
International Family News Network (IFN)
  • Home
  • Opinion
  • Life
  • Family
  • Culture
  • Politics
  • Entertainment
  • Science
  • Shows
  • Petitions
  • Subscribe
  • Donate
International Family News Network (IFN)
  • Home
  • Opinion
  • Life
  • Family
  • Culture
  • Politics
  • Entertainment
  • Science
  • Shows
  • Petitions
  • Subscribe
  • Donate
No Result
View All Result
International Family News Network (IFN)
No Result
View All Result

Demographic winter

Italy - and Europe in general - are entering a terrible demographic winter.

Michel Janva by Michel Janva
December 3, 2020
in Family, Foreground
944
Reading Time: 3 mins read
0
Demographic winter
Share on FacebookShare on WhatsAppShare on TelegramShare on TwitterShare on WeChat

Last updated on December 8th, 2020 at 03:12 pm

This article is reproduced with the kind permission of the Salon Beige where it was originally published (nde).

An article by Opinion refers to the Italian demographic winter, aggravated by the pandemic. By losing about 700,000 residents over the last five years, Italy has fallen below 60 million inhabitants for the first time since 2013. The pandemic has made Italy’s demographic situation even more difficult, in a country with a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman.

Some may have thought that containment would lead to higher birth rates… but, American researchers say in one study, that in the United States alone,500,000 children may not see the light of day next year because of the epidemic. Laurent Chalard explains on Atlantico :

These American researchers, who are economists and not demographers, do not rely on actual statistical data, since by definition children conceived since the Covid-19 health crisis have not yet been born, but on statistical models. These are based on the the basic assumption that the post-Covid-19 birth rate in the United States will be the same as that observed in the United States during the previous economic crisis of 2007-2009 and during the previous major health crisis, the Spanish flu in 1918, both of which led to a reduction in the birth rate. Broadly speaking, with regard to the economic impact, the hypothesis is that the drop in income mechanically leads some households to delay the birth of a child, resulting in a lower birth rate. Concerning the health crisis itself, the hypothesis appears different because, this time, it is based on the fact that mortality peaks are for the population a source of uncertainty and anxiety about the future, in a temporary context of social distancing, unfavourable to the maternity project. If the argument seems to hold water, it is nevertheless essentially an intellectual exercise because the authors make hazardous comparisons, since Covid-19 has only a very limited mortality compared to Spanish flu and hardly concerns people of childbearing age. Similarly, the link between economic development and birth rates is not as systematic as it seems, as fertility cycles in developed countries appear to be disconnected from economic cycles. Finally, the conclusions of these researchers are based on a certain economic determinism, resembling media “sales prophecies”, but whose fulfilment is reasonably doubtful, even if it is likely that the structural trend of a declining birth rate in the United States will continue in 2021.

Traditionally, episodes such as blackouts (massive power outages) are said to encourage a small increase in the birth rate. With a confinement that has forced intimacy but has hard hit couples psychologically, should we expect a variation in the birth rate in the coming months, one way or the other?

The confinements that France experienced in 2020, by their duration (3 months of very significant traffic restrictions in the same year) and their psychological impact (including existential questions at the key), cannot be compared to blackouts, which have no impact on the birth rate, contrary to popular belief. Concerning the possible consequences of these confinements on the French birth rate, a perfectly legitimate question from a scientific point of view, given their unprecedented nature, two hypotheses are possible. The first is that couples who found themselves alone without work had much more time to devote to the conception of a child, thus temporarily stimulating the birth rate (for 3 months), all the more so since, for a certain number of our fellow citizens, confinement was an opportunity for deep reflection on the meaning of their lives and a process of slowing down their pace of life and disconnection from work, elements that were rather favourable to new projects, including that of conceiving a first or a new child. The second hypothesis, which is similar to that put forward by American researchers in the United States, is that, faced with the fear of a bleak future and the severe economic crisis that has been announced, a number of couples have preferred to postpone conceiving a child this year, leading to a reduction in the birth rate next year. In fact, the relationship to motherhood has probably varied greatly between couples, making it impossible to determine in advance which trend will have prevailed! We will have a start on our response in the spring of 2021, when INSEE will publish the first provisional data on the birth rate in January 2021.

Tags: famille
Michel Janva

Michel Janva

Michel Janva is lead author at Le Salon Beige, the foremost conservative Catholic French blog. 

Discussion about this post

Popular News

  • The new Pope is Robert Prevost, and his name will be Leo XIV. He continues to be denounced in Peru for covering up sexual abuse by priests.

    The new Pope is Robert Prevost, and his name will be Leo XIV. He continues to be denounced in Peru for covering up sexual abuse by priests.

    0 shares 45 VIEWS
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Two Spanish ministers denounced for embezzlement in contracts awarded to Tragsa

    0 shares 41 VIEWS
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Habemus Papam! Fumata blanca: first article of the new pontificate of Esperanza

    0 shares 30 VIEWS
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Tailor-made consistories: how Francis manipulated the conclave

    0 shares 30 VIEWS
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Christian Lawyers request to the City Council of Callosa (Alicante) the replacement of the cross after confirming that the re-signified crosses do not violate the Law of Historical Memory.

    0 shares 19 VIEWS
    Share 0 Tweet 0

IFN – International Family News Network

© 2022 IFN – International Family News - All Rights Reserved.

Quick Links

  • About iFamNews
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

Follow Us

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
Subscribe

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Opinion
  • Life
  • Family
  • Culture
  • Politics
  • Entertainment
  • Science
  • Shows
  • Petitions
  • Subscribe
  • Donate

  • en English
  • it Italiano
  • es Español
  • fr Français
  • de Deutsch
  • pl Polski
  • sr српски
  • ru Русский
  • hr Hrvatski
  • Login
  • Sign Up

© 2022 IFN – International Family News - All Rights Reserved.