Families with young children are leaving big US cities at an unprecedented rate, according to a recent report published in The Atlantic and analyzed by a Manhattan Institute scholar. By scrutinizing the reasons behind this trend, it was suggested that urban progressive policies of the cities might be the cause. Census data analyzed by the Economic Innovation Group think tank showed an alarmingly steep decline in the under-5 population in major urban areas compared to other parts of the country. Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and St Louis all experienced a nearly 20% decline in their younger children’s population between 2020 and 2023.
This trend has major implications for the cities involved, as many of them are strongly marked by progressivism. If these urban areas fail to retain family units, it could be viewed as a failure of the policies they stand for. Housing affordability was one factor cited as problematic in these areas; the rising cost of living makes it more difficult for families to reside there. Moreover, expensive housing affects local services like childcare, leading to a shortage of workers content with lower wages. A predicted “family-exodus doom loop” could subsequently result in fewer parents fighting for better local amenities such as schools and playgrounds.
Cities in red states, however, have been more successful in constructing affordable housing and controlling childcare inflation. The findings suggest progressive cities should focus more on reducing living costs, controlling disorder, offering families educational choices, and making public areas more kid-friendly to attract families.