{"id":38777,"date":"2020-12-02T09:36:14","date_gmt":"2020-12-02T14:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifamnews.com\/?p=38777"},"modified":"2020-12-02T09:36:18","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T14:36:18","slug":"hiver-d-mographique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifamnews.com\/fr\/hiver-d-mographique","title":{"rendered":"Hiver d\u00e9mographique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Cet article est reproduit avec l&rsquo;aimable autorisation du <a href=\"https:\/\/lesalonbeige.fr\/\">Salon beige<\/a> o\u00f9 il a initialement \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 (nde).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un article de\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/lopinion.fr\/edition\/international\/pourquoi-l-hiver-demographique-italien-n-est-pas-pres-prendre-fin-230516?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=barre-partage-site\">l\u2019Opinion<\/a>\u00a0\u00e9voque l\u2019hiver d\u00e9mographique italien, aggrav\u00e9 par la pand\u00e9mie. En perdant environ 700 000 r\u00e9sidents au cours des cinq derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es,\u00a0<strong>l\u2019Italie est pass\u00e9e sous les 60 millions d\u2019habitants pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 2013.\u00a0<\/strong>La pand\u00e9mie a rendu la situation d\u00e9mographique italienne encore plus difficile, dans ce pays o\u00f9 le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 est de 1,3 enfant par femme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certains ont pu penser que le confinement provoquerait une hausse des natalit\u00e9s\u2026 mais, des chercheurs am\u00e9ricains affirment&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/brookings.edu\/research\/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust\/\">dans une \u00e9tude<\/a>&nbsp;que, rien qu\u2019aux Etats-Unis,&nbsp;<strong>500.000&nbsp;enfants pourraient ne pas voir le jour l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine en raison de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie<\/strong>.&nbsp;Laurent Chalard explique sur&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/atlantico.fr\/decryptage\/3594197\/les-premiers-indices-d-un-baby-krach-sont-ils-la--laurent-chalard\">Atlantico<\/a>&nbsp;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>Ces chercheurs am\u00e9ricains, qui sont des \u00e9conomistes et non des d\u00e9mographes, ne s\u2019appuient pas sur des donn\u00e9es statistiques r\u00e9elles, puisque, par d\u00e9finition, les enfants con\u00e7us depuis la crise sanitaire de la Covid-19 ne sont pas encore n\u00e9s, mais sur des mod\u00e8les statistiques. Ces derniers reposent sur le&nbsp;<strong>postulat de base que l\u2019\u00e9volution de la natalit\u00e9 post-Covid-19 aux Etats-Unis sera identique \u00e0 ce qui s\u2019est constat\u00e9 dans ce m\u00eame pays lors de la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente crise \u00e9conomique de 2007-2009 et lors de la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente grande crise sanitaire, la grippe espagnole en 1918, qui avaient chacune conduit \u00e0 une r\u00e9duction de la natalit\u00e9<\/strong>. En gros, concernant l\u2019impact \u00e9conomique, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se est que la baisse des revenus conduit m\u00e9caniquement certains m\u00e9nages \u00e0 retarder la venue d\u2019un enfant, d\u2019o\u00f9 une diminution de la natalit\u00e9. Concernant la crise sanitaire \u00e0 proprement parler, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se appara\u00eet diff\u00e9rente car, cette fois-ci, elle repose sur le fait que les pics de mortalit\u00e9 sont pour la population une source d\u2019incertitude et d\u2019anxi\u00e9t\u00e9 face au futur, dans un contexte temporaire de distanciation sociale, d\u00e9favorable au projet de maternit\u00e9. Si l\u2019argumentation semble tenir la route, il n\u2019en demeure pas moins qu\u2019elle rel\u00e8ve essentiellement d\u2019un exercice intellectuel car les auteurs font des comparaisons hasardeuses, la Covid-19 n\u2019ayant qu\u2019une mortalit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9e par rapport \u00e0 la grippe espagnole et ne concernant quasiment pas les personnes en \u00e2ge de procr\u00e9er. De m\u00eame, concernant le lien entre \u00e9volution \u00e9conomique et natalit\u00e9, il n\u2019est pas aussi syst\u00e9matique que cela, les cycles de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s paraissant d\u00e9connect\u00e9s des cycles \u00e9conomiques. Finalement, les conclusions de ces chercheurs reposent sur un d\u00e9terminisme \u00e9conomique certain, s\u2019apparentant \u00e0 des \u00ab&nbsp;proph\u00e9ties vendeuses&nbsp;\u00bb m\u00e9diatiquement, mais dont on peut raisonnablement douter de leur r\u00e9alisation,&nbsp;<strong>m\u00eame s\u2019il est vraisemblable que la tendance structurelle \u00e0 la diminution de la natalit\u00e9 aux Etats-Unis devrait se poursuivre en 2021<\/strong>.<\/p><p><em>Traditionnellement, on dit que des \u00e9pisodes comme les blackouts (pannes massives de courant) favorisent une petite hausse de la natalit\u00e9. Avec un confinement qui a forc\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019intimit\u00e9 mais a durement \u00e9prouv\u00e9 les couples au niveau psychologique, doit-on s\u2019attendre \u00e0 une variation de la natalit\u00e9 dans les mois qui viennent, dans un sens o\u00f9 dans l\u2019autre ?<\/em><\/p><p>Les confinements qu\u2019ont connu la France en 2020, par leur dur\u00e9e (3 mois de restriction de circulation tr\u00e8s importante dans une m\u00eame ann\u00e9e) et leur impact psychologique (dont des questionnements existentiels \u00e0 la cl\u00e9), ne peuvent \u00eatre compar\u00e9s \u00e0 des blackout, qui n\u2019ont d\u2019ailleurs aucun impact sur la natalit\u00e9, contrairement \u00e0 une id\u00e9e re\u00e7ue. Concernant les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9ventuelles de ces confinements sur la natalit\u00e9 hexagonale, interrogation parfaitement l\u00e9gitime sur le plan scientifique, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 leur caract\u00e8re in\u00e9dit, deux hypoth\u00e8ses sont possibles. La premi\u00e8re est que les couples se retrouvant seuls sans occupation ont eu beaucoup plus de temps de se consacrer \u00e0 la conception d\u2019un enfant, stimulant donc temporairement la natalit\u00e9 (pendant 3 mois), d\u2019autant que, pour un certain nombre de nos concitoyens, le confinement a \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019occasion d\u2019une r\u00e9flexion profonde sur le sens de leur vie et d\u2019un processus de ralentissement de leur rythme de vie et de d\u00e9connexion par rapport au travail, \u00e9l\u00e9ments plut\u00f4t favorables \u00e0 de nouveaux projets, dont celui de la conception d\u2019un premier ou d\u2019un nouvel enfant. La seconde hypoth\u00e8se, qui se rapproche de celle avanc\u00e9e par les chercheurs am\u00e9ricains aux Etats-Unis, serait que face \u00e0 la peur de lendemains qui d\u00e9chantent et de la s\u00e9v\u00e8re crise \u00e9conomique annonc\u00e9e, un certain nombre de couples aient pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 ajourner la conception d\u2019un enfant cette ann\u00e9e, conduisant \u00e0 une r\u00e9duction de la natalit\u00e9 l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine. Dans les faits, le rapport \u00e0 la maternit\u00e9 a probablement \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s variable selon les couples, ne permettant pas de d\u00e9terminer \u00e0 l\u2019avance quelle tendance l\u2019aura emport\u00e9&nbsp;!&nbsp;<strong>Nous aurons un d\u00e9but de r\u00e9ponse au printemps 2021, lorsque l\u2019Insee publiera les premi\u00e8res donn\u00e9es provisoires sur la natalit\u00e9 en janvier 2021.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&rsquo;Italie \u2013 et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l&rsquo;Europe \u2013 entrent dans un terrible hiver d\u00e9mographique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":38786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"L'Italie \u2013 et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l'Europe \u2013 entrent dans un terrible hiver d\u00e9mographique.","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override":[{"single_blog_custom":"","sidebar":"","second_sidebar":"","share_position":"","share_float_style":"","post_date_format":"","post_date_format_custom":"","post_reading_time_wpm":"","zoom_button_out_step":"1","zoom_button_in_step":"1","number_popup_post":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"","single_post_gallery_size":""}],"trending_post_position":"","trending_post_label":"","sponsored_post_label":"","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798,809],"tags":[1456],"class_list":["post-38777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-famille","category-foreground-fr","tag-famille"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.9 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - 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