Two weeks\nago the European Council elevated demography\u2014specifically depopulation through\nlow birth rates\u2014onto its strategic agenda for the next five years. For the\nfirst time the question of natality will have its own commissioner in Brussels. The change came under pressure from the\nmember states of eastern Europe, where the birth rate question has climbed to\nthe top of domestic policy agendas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On these\nmatters, Hungary leads the way. Its government, led by Prime Minister Victor\nOrban, has implemented a range of pro-natalist policies, amounting to a\nmassive, unprecedented five percent of the nation\u2019s Gross Domestic Product. One\nrepresentative innovation is a program offering a $33,000 marriage loan to\ncouples, with the debt fully forgiven on the birth of a third child. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recently,\nthe Hungarian model has come to America. Until a decade ago, the United States\nappeared to differ from the European pattern of below-replacement fertility.\nWhile the nations of the European Union in 2000 had a Total Fertility Rate near\n1.5 births per woman, the American figure was close to 2.0. In part, this derived\nfrom the relatively high fertility of certain American religious groups\u2026.something\ndistinctively American. It also reflected, I believe, the success of the\n\u201cAmerican\u201d form of family income support, achieved through tax policy\u2026\nnotably the personal exemption for\nchildren and the child tax credit, the latter introduced in 1997 and increased\nin 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the\nfinancial crisis of 2008\/09 had a surprising effect on American family behavior.\nFertility fell sharply, which could have been predicted. However, when the\neconomy improved, fertility did not. American numbers remained low, near the\nstill dismal European figure. The American model of family support no longer\nseemed to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This has led some American policy analysts to look for new ways to deliver income assistance to young families\u2026. at the impressive Hungarian level. One proposal gaining some traction appeared this past autumn in the journal American Affairs. <\/em>An article co-authored by political scientist Gladden Pappin and economist Maria Molla calls for a scheme called FamilyPay, which would provide a direct cash stipend to parents: $6500 annually for one dependent child, $11,500 for two, $17,000 for three, and up to $38,000 for nine or more. This would be supplemented by a voucher-like system of CarePoints that could be spent \u201con everything from diapers to baby food to private school tuition.\u201d Given the proposed structure of the scheme, births within marriage would be favored and intentional single-parenthood discouraged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The cost\nwould be enormous\u2026. $1.8 trillion per annum, or 8.7 percent of GDP\u2026. a number\nthat would leave even the Hungarians in the dust. To pay the bill, the\nco-authors propose an intriguing \ncombination of budget cuts, tax increases (including heavy new federal\nexcise taxes on gambling, pornography, video games, night clubs, tobacco,\nvaping, tattoos, piercings, and cosmetic surgery!), and strategic borrowing.\n\nImplausible? Certainly so at the moment. All the\nsame, the Pappin-Molla plan is the kind of fresh thinking needed to counter\nboth the sterile libertarianism found on the Right and the post-family\nsocialism found on the Left, in both Europe and America.\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hungary, led by Prime Minister Victor Orban, has implemented a range of pro-natalist policies. Could this model work in the US?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":7645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"Hungary, led by Prime Minister Victor Orban, has implemented a range of pro-natalist policies. Could this model work in the US?","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override":[{"single_blog_custom":"","sidebar":"","second_sidebar":"","share_position":"","share_float_style":"","post_date_format":"","post_date_format_custom":"","post_reading_time_wpm":"","zoom_button_out_step":"1","zoom_button_in_step":"1","number_popup_post":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"","single_post_gallery_size":""}],"trending_post_position":"","trending_post_label":""},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"510"},"jnews_social_meta":{"fb_title":"","fb_description":"","fb_image":"","twitter_title":"","twitter_description":"","twitter_image":""},"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[510,805],"tags":[483,1037],"class_list":["post-7639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-family","category-foreground","tag-hungary","tag-policy"],"yoast_head":"\n